![]() By 2036, Millennial and Generation Z voters-the two youngest generations-will be heavily represented in both the Democratic Party and Republican Party coalitions, while the influence of Baby Boomer and the Silent Generation voters-the two oldest generations-will radically decline. Generational changes will also be substantial. White noncollege voters, in particular, are projected to decline rapidly as a share of both parties’ coalitions across all states through 2036, although the sharpest declines will, again, be in fast-growing states. On the other hand, we find that white voters will continue to decline through 2036 as a share of both the Republican and Democratic party coalitions, though this decline with be considerably quicker in fast-growing states such as Arizona and Texas that are already less white. And, by 2036, black voters will make up a larger share of the Democratic coalition than white noncollege voters. ![]() We find that, by 2032, Hispanic voters will surpass black voters as the largest overall nonwhite voting group. Nonwhites will continue to grow as a share of both parties’ coalitions, especially Hispanics. This election was the first presidential election white noncollege voters did not make up a plurality of both parties’ coalitions, with white college voters exceeding the share of white noncollege voters in the Democratic coalition. Reflecting these intensifying divisions, the parties were more compositionally different in 2016 than at any point in the prior 36 years. The parties were more divided by age, race, and education than in any prior election in modern political history. We show that the 2016 election was the most graphically divisive election in the past 36 years. Our investigation turns up a number of key findings that illuminate how significantly the compositions of the Democratic and Republican parties have changed over the years and are likely to change in the future. As we head into the 2020 presidential primaries, we are bound to observe the effects of party composition on how candidates for the presidential nomination-especially Democratic candidates, due to their intense competition for voters-position themselves to garner primary votes from different demographic groups within their party. While size is not the sole determinant of a group’s influence within a party, it is a significant input and affects how parties formulate positions and present themselves to the electorate. ![]() While the former tells us about the political leanings of a given group, the latter answers different questions. Rather, it focuses on how many people who voted or are likely to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in a particular election belong to a given demographic group. Reflecting the latter focus, this analysis will not focus on how many individuals from a given demographic group voted or will likely vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in a particular election. In this report, we will explore the effect of these changes on the demographic composition of the electorate and, especially, on the composition of the two major political parties.
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